Estudio del efecto de la estimación del tiempo y el tamaño del búfer de proyecto en el Método de la Cadena Crítica = Study of the effect of tasks duration and project buffer size estimation in the Critical Chain Method

Joaquín Fuentes, Juan Pedro Ruiz, Nelia Valverde, Elena Navarro


doi:10.20868/ade.2019.3910

Abstract


Resumen

La aplicación del Método de la Cadena Crítica en la dirección y gestión de proyectos suscita abiertos debates sobre qué procedimiento de dimensionado del búfer se ha de utilizar y cuál ha de ser la duración de las actividades en la realización del cronograma. Se ha realizado una comparativa entre 4 métodos de dimensionado de búfers, empleando dos tipos de estimaciones de la duración de las tareas. Se ha determinado la probabilidad de cumplimiento de la fecha de finalización del proyecto obtenida con cada método a través de una simulación Monte Carlo. Tomando como criterio la probabilidad de cumplimiento, se ha demostrado que la duración media de las actividades tiene mayor efecto que un procedimiento específico de dimensionado del búfer. Aunque cada método de dimensionado genera una planificación diferente, el tamaño del búfer siempre aumenta la confiabilidad de la fecha de finalización del proyecto.

Abstract

Critical Chain Method application in Project Management generates open discussions about which buffer’s sizing procedure should be used and what tasks duration should be considered in the realization of the timeline. A comparison has been carried out between 4 buffers' sizing methods, using two types of estimates for tasks duration. By means of a Monte Carlo simulation, each probability of project deadline compliance has been determined. Taking the probability of compliance as a criterion, it has been found that the use of average tasks durations has a greater effect than a specific sizing buffer's method. Although each sizing method generates a different planning, the buffer size always increases the reliability of the project's end date


Keywords


Cadena Crítica; Goldratt; Búfer; Gestión de proyectos; Simulación Monte Carlo; Critical Chain; Goldratt; Buffer; Project management; Monte Carlo simulation

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